The world is going through a transition phase. we are experiencing the rise of new powers and the decline of old. India has to navigate its path through this changing order keeping its interest in mind. The changes underway offer India an opportunity to participate in the crafting of political and economic institutions that are more pertinent to the emerging geopolitical equations.
CHINA AND INDIA – MATERIAL POWER
He further elaborated that during the past two decades, we witnessed transformations to global economic power. China’s saving rate, at 45% is over thrice that of the us, while GDP is 66% thus its total investible capital is 2x that of America. by contrast, for India, its saving rate is 28%, which is about twice that of the us, while GDP is 13%, so its total new investible capital annually is about 25% of the us. while not comparable to China, it is still significant- about 50% of Japan. As the US-China standoff keeps getting murkier, people on both sides are asking tough questions. can there be a victor? what will be the ramifications of an all-out trade war on the global market? and how will it end? as the country exports more to the us than it imports, China simply does not have much room to counter American tariffs. however, if things get really serious, China and the us are financially intertwined in ways that China could seek to exploit, though not without creating risks for themselves as they currently hold $1.2 trillion in us treasury bonds.
HOW READY IS INDIA TO ACCOMMODATE CHANGE?
He further inquired that how ready is India to accommodate changes? will it affect the future of multilateral institutions like the UN, WHO, WTO to which India is deeply committed and if so, what are the alternatives? India also needs to resolve several bilateral issues with China – border disputes, sea lanes in the Indian ocean, trade, and cyber security and how will these be affected?
THE THEORY OF POWER TRANSITION
Professor pant began his lecture with the theory of power transition (having forecast the rise of China as early as 1958, this aspect of power transition is now fully integrated into the mainstream thinking of most current observers of world politics). while mentioning how the United States performs this role as a global economic stabilizer, sir made references to the unipolar movement from back in the day.
During the 1990s, the unipolar moment brought the rise of the us as the sole superpower of the world after the end of the cold war. economic, military superiority, as well as a political influence throughout the world, was coined to be the unipolar moment of the United States in the world system since there was no other challenging superpower. he discussed with the participants the inward orientation we still observe in American foreign policies today, melding “America first”, “American dream” and other euphemisms alike.
These paradoxically emerged on the progressive left to put forth how unchecked capitalism and huge increases in private wealth would destroy the American dream of opportunity, because of inequality, but altered after World War 2. the newfound emphasis on individual economic liberty was in tension with the idea of justice for all, and this became more of a problem as economic inequality increased and the spoils of capitalism were restricted to a privileged few later in the century.
THE EMERGENCE OF NEW GEOGRAPHIES
There have been incessant mentions of “indo-pacific”, as the emergence of new geographies happens to seep into the conversations diplomats and policymakers have to formulate legislations. this is a colloquial name given to the territory stretching from Australia to India in Washington. it is even more relevant after the deluge of news that leaders of four large democracies who make up the quad have reiterated their commitment to a free and open indo-pacific region that is “undaunted by coercion.”
INDIA AS A NATION THAT CAN SPEAK GLOBAL CONCERNS
Professor harsh quoted from his piece published in orf, “ever since the coronavirus pandemic started revealing its true scale and scope, PM Modi has tried to position India carefully as a nation that can speak of global concerns with the widest possible range of stakeholders. and the first platform he used was SAARC, a grouping which he has tried to marginalize over the last six years. This is also an attempt to fill the leadership vacuum in the global order when both China and the us have exposed their vulnerabilities. India has shown that a nation with limited capabilities can also emerge as a leader by outlining the concerns of like-minded countries and working with them to build capacities in smaller states.
Indian diplomacy during the time of the covid-19 pandemic has been proactive and has tried to shape the global discourse. towards this, existing platforms like NAM and SAARC have been used by Modi in the same way in which he has used newer groupings like the g20. in his address at the NAM summit, Modi showcased India’s efforts towards global cooperation by underlining the supply of critical drugs and medical devices to 123 countries, including 59 members of NAM.
GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS AND RESET DYNAMICS FOR INDIA
The lecture was further propelled forward by Dr. parama sinhapalit. she is an adjunct senior fellow at the rajaratnam school of international studies (rsis) in the nanyang technological university (ntu), Singapore.
Ma’am Reiterated the stance discussed in the lecture earlier and spoke at length about the geopolitical implications of covid-19, and the reset dynamics for us-China. this year’s Malabar exercise included Australia, the rhetoric of better ally-ship with the allies of the countries in question. Malabar is an annual maritime exercise that enhances planning, training, and employment of advanced warfare tactics between the royal Australian navy (ran), Indian navy (in), Japan maritime self-defence force, and US navy which demonstrates the commitment between like-minded nations to upholding a rules-based maritime order in the indo-pacific, due to the volatile sentiments bolstered by PM’s nationalism-perfectionist speeches, the meet is no longer a singular entity but an outlet to Modi’s vision on the outset.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS AND GLOBAL POWER SHIFTS
Responding prof pant shared those international institutions such as united nations security council, the world trade organization, and international monetary fund come under pressure to adapt to new power realities. in the wake of global power shifts, both emerging and established powers can change the status quo. the countries are today going for lateral groupings instead of investing informal institutions which require a certain kind of power structure.
RISE OF MINI LATERALS IN INDO –PACIFIC
Prof Pant further commented that the past decade has witnessed a geopolitical churning in the indo-pacific region with new strategic alignments being created and mini lateral groupings such as the quadrilateral security dialogue (or quad) have emerged which are a result of changing geopolitical dynamics in the region. the changing balance of power dynamics both at the regional and global levels impacts the effective functioning of the larger multilateral institutions. perceptions of the ineffectiveness of more formal multilateral bodies in dealing with regional challenges have pushed countries to look for alternatives.
He event spanned also the Russia-India-China trilateral, since “all three countries support a just and rational new international order with the democratization of international politics and multi polarisation, there are a number of areas possible for their political cooperation in the new century.”
WOMEN IN DIPLOMACY
Tillotoma foundation organized the international round table on the role of women in diplomacy: past, present & future on 9th august 2021. There was an excellent and inspiring discussion, ranging from the history of female diplomats to the role of women in climate diplomacy and combating climate change. the importance of greater participation from women in any diplomatic negotiation and engagement was specially highlighted by the speakers. Foreign Services should be equally accommodating for both men and women and the more they are able to accommodate people’s personal choices or preferences, the better the work environment and better the output that going to get.
Ambassador Vijay Shankar Laxmi personally had dealt with hardcore security issues from counter terrorism to a nuclear disarmament negotiation with Pakistan changing mindsets of men becomes as important as changing mindsets of women today, because we have in India very forward leaning, constitution, and framework which are freedom fighters who were forward looking enough to complete of gender equality and the articles in the constitution said there will be no discrimination on grounds of caste creed, sex or gender but the reality is that for women who can transcend their tradition barriers there is no limit but most women are not in a position to transcend their traditional roles which seek to circumscribe them within the house. so, changing the mindset of society is very important.
There was a special mention of Vijaya Lakshmi pandit, the first female president of the United Nations general assembly and other pioneering female diplomats from India. The challenges that have been faced and overcome by female diplomats over the years was also discussed at length. the changing scenario for women in politics and diplomacy in countries like the United States of America was also discussed. the issue of combating climate change and the special role that women can play in climate diplomacy was also highlighted by the speakers. the need for south-south cooperation in terms of gender justice and climate change was also highlighted.
She mentioned Chipko movement and other example of panchayat to point out how women in India outperform men when it comes to diplomacy. According to her 3 main points that help women in diplomacy are:
- Patience
- Ability to hear the other side
- Resilience
Mrs Bahija Abubakar
She talked about climate change and about her work in Nigeria. She did her graduation in mechanical engineering and later did commendable work in environmental engineering. According to her the power of resilience can be the driving force for women in order to have climate smart world.
Dr Roxane Zigon
She is an author and counsellor on international relations and strategic planning, Russia. She was fascinated about the fact how Indian diplomats are vocal about persisting issues. The fact that how African women are getting chance to be heard from the world largest podium is the true sign according to her of growth and empowerment of women. She was of the opinion that getting united on climate change and propagating healthy climate diplomacy is essential for the mankind. She also initiated a tv program which talk about the history of influential diplomats from Russia and around the world.
Ms Khushi Singh Rathore
She is a doctoral student at JNU India and she talked about the induction of women in foreign services and it all boils to one thing that we haven’t moved ahead in time. She talked about feminist foreign policy. She did her work in Indian women in the UN history. Women from all caste and creed should be remembered and their stories should be proudly propagated with your own soil. Participation of women in NAM should be kept in mind while working on gender neutral diplomacy.
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