This article has been written by Advitya Ahlawat, a 2nd Year Student of School of Law, Christ University, Bangalore.

Abstract – A historic deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was struck in 2015 with the intention of resolving issues with Iran’s nuclear program. However, the agreement began to fall apart in 2018 as a result of the US pulling out unilaterally, which had an effect on international security. The JCPOA is still facing difficulties in spite of diplomatic attempts to bring it back, which are made worse by geopolitical unrest and Iran’s nuclear program. On October 18, 2023, Transition Day will mark a significant turning point in the nuclear sanctions process. The complicated web of international ties, regional issues, and the prospect of snapback clauses make the future more difficult to navigate, even while diplomacy is still hoped for. A stable and secure future necessitates striking a balance between caution and diplomacy, which emphasizes the necessity for a renewed commitment to non-proliferation initiatives.

Keywords- JCPOA, Iran nuclear crisis, Transition Day, Sanctions, Breakout time, Diplomacy

Introduction 

 A historic diplomatic agreement was signed in July 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 nations—the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union—known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or the Iran nuclear deal. The JCPOA’s major goal was to allay worries about Iran’s nuclear program, guaranteeing its peaceful nature and halting the country’s ability to develop nuclear weapons. The participating countries agreed to relax some economic sanctions that had been severely harming Iran’s economy in exchange for Iran agreeing to dismantle large elements of its nuclear facilities and submit to stringent international inspections. The agreement, which came into force in January 2016, aimed to place restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, such as capping the amount of enriched uranium it could stockpile and restricting the amount of uranium it could enrich.

 The goal of the negotiations was to give the international community at least a year to reply, thereby delaying Iran’s possible breakout time for nuclear bomb development. In order to guarantee Iran’s compliance, the agreement also includes procedures for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor and verify. But when the United States unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, citing perceived shortcomings and demanding a more comprehensive agreement that addressed Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional activities, the agreement’s stability started to unravel. Iran’s economy was further damaged by the reintroduction of harsh economic sanctions following the U.S. pullout.

 Iran resumed its nuclear activities, which had been prohibited under the JCPOA, but steadily reduced its compliance in response to the U.S. withdrawal and other geopolitical developments. International concern was aroused when UN inspectors revealed in early 2023 that Iran had enhanced trace amounts of uranium to almost weapons-grade levels. Restoring the JCPOA has proven to be difficult. The parties seem to be far from striking a resolution in the negotiations, which have been characterized by stop-and-go progress even though President Joe Biden expressed a willingness to return to the agreement if Iran restored to compliance. The situation is made more difficult by the fact that JCPOA provisions are starting to expire.

The JCPOA is surrounded by a complex geopolitical environment that includes not just the initial negotiation parties but also regional actors like Saudi Arabia, which voiced reservations about the agreement, and Israel, which fiercely opposed it. The negotiations to resurrect the agreement have become more complicated due to the expiration of some clauses and Iran’s potential to move forward with its nuclear program. Signatories to the JCPOA have had difficulty reviving the essentially dead agreement. The nations started talks in April 2021 to bring Washington and Tehran back into the agreement, but since then, the talks have been sporadic and complicated by events like the Israel-Hamas war in 2023, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Iran’s election of conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi as president.

 Iran was even subject to more sanctions as a result of its alleged involvement in the two crises. The Biden administration placed fresh sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile and drone projects just before several UN-mandated JCPOA elements were about to expire in October 2023, and the EU declined to lift the penalties on their end.

Role Of Security Council and Resolution 2231

Established in 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is a major international agreement designed to address concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear program. The goal of the JCPOA was to guarantee that Iran’s nuclear operations would be peaceful. It was crafted with the cooperation of Germany, the European Union, and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It pledged the removal of economic sanctions in exchange, which had previously severely damaged Iran’s economy. But when the US unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 under the direction of former President Donald Trump, the agreement’s credibility was seriously jeopardized. Sanctions against Iran were reimposed as a result of this withdrawal, which produced a difficult diplomatic situation. The UN Security Council’s Resolution 2231, which described the procedure for easing sanctions, is still a vital resource for discussing the JCPOA.

Progress has proved elusive despite continuous diplomatic efforts and appeals for discussion to restore the full implementation of Resolution 2231 and the JCPOA. Rosemary DiCarlo, the chief of UN Political Affairs, emphasized the difficulties in verifying and overseeing Iran’s nuclear-related pledges while pointing out the lack of diplomatic progress. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is having trouble verifying that Iran has more enriched uranium in stock than what the JCPOA stipulates. The expiration of the sanctions on Iran’s missile programs and transfers on October 18 is another reason for concern. A number of nations have reported purported violations of JCPOA’s nuclear-related prohibitions, particularly those pertaining to missiles. DiCarlo gave in-depth reports of incidents in which missile components—including those utilized in an attack by Houthi rebels in Yemen—seemed to have come from Iran and may have been transferred in contravention of Resolution 2231.

The JCPOA, which was previously heralded as a historic breakthrough, is currently the subject of far less enthusiasm. The agreement’s former promise is now seriously threatened. The UN stresses that in order to salvage the JCPOA, all parties concerned must exercise restraint and look into diplomatic options. The agreement’s future is crucial, particularly in light of international peace and security. In order to get partners to address the difficulties and ambiguities surrounding this important international accord, the UN continues to play a significant role.

International Efforts Stumble in Restoring Iran Nuclear Deal Amidst Escalating Tensions –

The international community is facing increasing difficulties in trying to reinvigorate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the historic agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, due to growing tensions and differing viewpoints among the participating countries. Rosemary DiCarlo, Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, stressed the pressing necessity of pursuing “all available diplomatic avenues” in order to revive the JCPOA, pointing out that the optimism that accompanied its approval eight years ago has considerably diminished. DiCarlo emphasized the crucial significance of the JCPOA’s success in the current global security environment and called attention to the parties’ shared duty in deciding the agreement’s fate.

DiCarlo emphasized the UN’s dedication to fostering communication and moderation between the parties, even as she urged Iran to undo actions at odds with its nuclear obligations and urged the US to ease or suspend sanctions. These views were mirrored by Björn Olof Skoog, the Head of Delegation for the European Union, who emphasized the need to resume nuclear diplomacy in order to stabilize the Middle East. Skoog underlined the EU’s determination to reacting to Iran’s purported military backing for the Russian Federation’s operations in Ukraine while expressing concerns about Iran’s increased nuclear enrichment infrastructure and deteriorating relations with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Vanessa Frazier, the Security Council’s facilitator for enforcing resolution 2231 (2015), emphasized the IAEA’s vital role in confirming and overseeing Iran’s nuclear endeavours. 

She emphasized the difficulties caused by Iran’s resistance to working with the IAEA, stressing the need of communication and multilateralism for the successful implementation of resolution 2231 and the JCPOA. Iran’s delegate, during the open discussion, pointedly blamed the United States and the European Union for trying to change the story and paint the victim as the bad guy for the current state of the JCPOA. The delegate reaffirmed Iran’s adherence to the IAEA Safeguards Agreement and affirmed Iran’s right to suspend operations in the event that sanctions are reinstated. The US delegate, however, voiced dissatisfaction with the Secretariat’s handling of Iran’s supply of drones to the Russian Federation and emphasized that the Council must denounce such activities.

 Different perspectives on the situation were given by France, Germany, Russia, and the United Kingdom. Russia chastised the West for focusing on purported Iranian drone deliveries to Russia and charged that the US was the reason behind the JCPOA’s collapse by pulling out in 2018. While the United Kingdom focused on Iran’s violations of resolution 2231 (2015), particularly the transfer of drones to the Russian Federation, Germany voiced alarm over Iran’s enrichment of uranium to 60%. These differing viewpoints highlight the intricacy and enduring difficulties associated with reviving the JCPOA. Concerning Iran’s actions, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said that Iran was still supplying weapons to Houthi militias in Yemen. The UAE delegate presented research on cruise missile debris that showed similarities to missiles of Iranian provenance that had been used in earlier strikes in the area. This increased people’s misgivings about Iran’s actions and how they might affect the stability of the area.

In conclusion, efforts by the international community to salvage the JCPOA and resolve issues pertaining to Iran’s nuclear program are at a critical crossroads. The conflicting views, accusations, and complicated geopolitical environment all add to the uncertainty over the agreement’s future. The JCPOA’s complexities and difficulties can only be resolved by diplomatic engagement, communication, and a shared commitment to finding common ground.

Day of Transition and Its Consequences:

On October 18, 2023, Transition Day will occur, signifying the end of all sanctions against Iran linked to nuclear matters. This includes removing sanctions pertaining to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs as well as placing limitations on ballistic missile technologies. Nonetheless, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany (E3) have conveyed apprehensions regarding Iran’s non-adherence, implying the perpetuation of specific sanctions within their national policies after the October deadline. Snapback clauses in the JCPOA permit the reapplication of UN sanctions in the case that Iran fails to meet its performance obligations. The E3 reaffirmed their determination to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons while maintaining flexibility to initiate the snapback procedure if needed. 

Transition Day represents a turning point in the history of the JCPOA. Iran will benefit economically from the easing of some sanctions, but worries about possible geopolitical repercussions—including backing for Russia in Ukraine—remain. Complexity is increased by the diplomatic impasse, necessitating coordinated measures to rebuild confidence and find common ground. It is critical that the interests of all parties involved be addressed as the international community navigates this difficult situation. A more stable and secure future can be achieved through a renewed dedication to diplomatic discussion, transparency regarding Iran’s nuclear programs, and a rigorous examination of the snapback clauses. The changing dynamics highlight the necessity for a thorough strategy in non-proliferation efforts that takes into account both short-term issues and long-term goals.

Conclusion-

With Transition Day on October 18, 2023, marking a crucial turning point in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iran nuclear problem is at a critical crossroads. The trip has been difficult so far because of Iran’s persistent violations of the conditions of the JCPOA and the complex diplomatic juggle between international stakeholders. Concerns regarding the real purpose of Iran’s nuclear program and its possible geopolitical fallout are growing as Transition Day draws near. Iran has experienced economic respite with the lifting of sanctions related to its nuclear program, but given the interconnectedness of world crises, worries about the consequences for regional stability remain.

 As a ray of hope, diplomacy has witnessed failures as well as moments of success. Though goodwill gestures and indirect talks in Oman have encouraged optimism, reaching a complete agreement is still difficult. A careful approach that takes into account the concerns of all parties concerned is required due to the delicate balance of power and interests. The threat of snapback clauses serves as a reminder to the whole community of the nuclear deal’s vulnerability. The UK, France, and Germany’s resolve to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons (E3) presents a possible diplomatic pressure point. However, given the complexity of the geopolitical environment, strategic foresight and a team effort to identify common ground are necessary.

 The nuclear issue with Iran necessitates a careful balance between caution and diplomacy. Rebuilding confidence, promoting open communication, and renewing a dedication to the values that guide non-proliferation initiatives are critical as the world observes the events that are taking place. Moving past the complexities of accords and due dates, the common objective of international security needs to direct the course. The success or failure of the JCPOA will be determined by how well the international community handles these obstacles as well as the general state of peace and stability in the unstable area.

Reference

1. This article was published on Council of Foreign Relations Website. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal
2. This article was published on The United Nations Website. https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/12/1144917
3. This article was published on the White House website. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/issues/foreign-policy/iran-deal
4. This article was published on The United Nations website. https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15536.doc.htm
5. This article was published on the UK Parliament website. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9870/
6. This article was published on United States Institute of Peace website. https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2023/may/03/timeline-iran%E2%80%99s-nuclear-program-2018